Democrats and demographics

The Pew Research Center came out with a study predicting what America will look like in 2050. The changes in the demographics could have repercussions for the future of the Democratic Party.

In 2050, whites will decrease from 67% to 47%

In 2050, Latinos will increase from 14% to 29%

In 2050, blacks will remain the same at 13%

In 2050, Asians will increase from 5% to 12%

In 2050, elderly will increase from 12% to 19%

The biggest impact is that whites are no longer the majority. If recent trends continue, then it is possible that the Democrats and the Republicans will be neatly divided racially. The Democratic party could become the party of color while the Republican party becomes the white party. In the current presidential election, this racial divide has been pretty stark, although it would be interesting to see what blacks do if Hillary got the nomination and what latinos would do if Barack got the nomination.

For the sake of argument, let’s say these recent trends continue. How might this affect each party’s platform? The key constituency for Democrats would be latinos. That being the case, they would need to have a comprehensive, liberal, immigration reform package. Democrats need to be on the left when it comes to immigration. They need to make a stark difference between them and the Republicans. And on the opposite side, I can totally see the Republicans becoming more xenophobic in order to cater to whites.

But if Democrats cater to Latinos, then they might have to drop the social/cultural issues like abortion and gay marriage. Latinos are disproportionately religious and the number of latino evangelicals is rising exponentially. Republicans will always be able to garner Latino votes by pushing a socially conservative agenda and juxtaposing it against the socially liberal agenda of the democrats. If Democrats want Latinos as a solid pro-Democratic voting bloc, they might not only have to drop the socially liberal agenda, but adopt a socially conservative agenda.

Doing so might of course alienate all those groups that identify as socially liberal. Will they be alienated enough to want to switch over to the Republicans? Or are their numbers not significant enough to warrant attention? We kinda already see this happening. Whereas the current democratic presidential candidates seem to side on the socially liberal side, by no means are they strong advocates for such social issues like abortion or gay marriage. This subtle shift might soon take a more drastic turn. I fear that the political calculus is such that democrats would be willing to alienate social liberals in order to woo more latino voters.

Another traditionally Democratic issue to get hit might be social security. Social security is the third rail of politics partly because it has been such a mainstay of the democratic party. But this might all change with the anticipated racial majority along with the rise of the elderly. In 2050, the number of elderly will rise 7%. Most of these people will be white. Most of the workforce will be people of color. If the Democratic party becomes the party of color, then protecting social security might lose its importance for dems and become more important for republicans. If the republican party becomes the white party, then it will also become the elderly party. What we might see in the future then is a complete shift of economic conservatism. The Republican party might very well become the party of big government while the democratic party becomes known as the cut-and-slash party. This issue becomes particularly acute in the next couple of years when social security for the first time spends more money than it takes in.

If the dems become the party of color, then it will be interesting to see who becomes the swing vote. Blacks have always voted democrat. Latinos generally vote democratic, but not overwhelmingly so like blacks. The one racial group yet to really be drawn in by the dems are Asians. Asians might become the future swing group. In 2050, if blacks and latinos all voted democrat, that would add up to 42%. With Asians, they would get 54%. But if Asians go with whites and vote Republican, then Republicans could get 59%. In other words, neither democrats nor republicans can get above the 50% threshold without Asians.

I am not at sure how this bodes for the future. If party politics end up dividing along racial lines, party platforms will change dramatically. Yes we might finally have a rainbow coalition, but at what expense?