Who is more likely to beat McCain?

So, I just crunched some numbers from the results of super duper tuesday and here is what I have found. There are 8 states in particular I want to focus on. These are Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and South Carolina. I have found these 8 states interesting because not only did they all vote bush in 2004 but in 2008, more democrats voted in the primaries than republicans. In other words, these are possible SWING states. If everybody who voted in the primaries in these states go on and vote in the general elections, these states would change color from 2004 red to 2008 blue.


ARKANSAS - 261,266 voted in the Dem. primary and 183,133 voted in the Rep. primary for a difference of 78,133

COLORADO - 119,184 Dems. and 55,845 Rep. for a difference of 63,399

GEORGIA - 1,017,002 Dems. and 947,357 Rep. for a difference of 69,645

MISSOURI - 820,453 Dems and 584,618 Rep. for a difference of 235,835

NORTH DAKOTA - 18,856 Dems and 9,743 Rep. for a difference of 8,913

OKLAHOMA - 401, 656 Dems and 331,796 Rep. for a difference of 69,860

TENNESSEE - 612,782 dems and 548,612 rep. for a difference of 64,170

SOUTH CAROLINA- 530,322 dems. and 442,918 rep. for a difference of 87,404

These numbers seem significant, particularly Missouri and North Dakota. So this then begs the question: which Democratic candidate won these states? The answer is Obama won 5 of the 8 (Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Carolina) and Hillary won 3 of the 8 (Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee). In terms of electoral math, Obama would net 46 more electoral college votes while Hillary would net 24 more electoral college votes, assuming the states that voted blue in 2004 would continue to vote blue in 2008. The next question then is whether or not you think Obama can better hold the states that voted blue in 2004 than Hillary. There is reason to doubt that he could considering Hillary carried more of these states. But again, would states that voted blue in 2004 really change their mind in 2008 if the candidate was Obama instead of HIllary? If so, which ones? I really can't think of one. In addition, we still have yet to hear from Ohio which is a possible swing state. So here is statistical evidence to suggest that Obama would be more likely to beat McCain if he were the democratic candidate over hillary.